🌫️ The mind

The number that wasn’t even trying to trick you

I can change your answer with a number that means nothing, and you’re about to test it on yourself twice.

Even when you know a number means nothing…

…because it came off a spinning wheel…

…it can still change your mind.

The game

Play it honestly and watch what you do

Below is a wheel of numbers. You spin it, it lands on a random number, and you’ll see for yourself that it’s random. Then I’ll ask you a question that has nothing to do with that number, and you give me your honest answer.

Don’t overthink it or try to beat it, because it only works if you answer honestly. Your turn: tap “Spin the wheel” and see what it lands on.

The wheel says

–

You get one spin, and whatever it lands on stays.

Now type your real guess. How many bones are there?

You’ve seen the wheel now.

So, can a number you know is random move you?

The trap

Round two, but decide first

The same skeleton question is coming again, after a fresh spin of the wheel. You know that a wheel spin means nothing. You’ve watched it. So, honestly: will a meaningless number affect your answer? Pick one. No changing your mind after.

A number I know is random…

The wheel says

–

This is a new wheel. Forget round one and answer with whatever feels right now.

Now type your guess for this round. How many bones are there?

You’ve spun twice and guessed twice.

Now both your answers go on one line.

The reveal

Your own two guesses, on one line

Here are both wheel numbers and both your guesses on the same line, along with the real answer, which I’ve kept back until now.

This fills in once you’ve spun both wheels and locked in both guesses.

Your mind never guesses from nothing.

It starts at the number… and stops too soon.

The why

You start at the number and stop too soon

When you’ve got a number in your head (any number), your brain doesn’t start guessing from nowhere. It starts at the number and adjusts away from it, and it stops as soon as the answer feels far enough away, even if it isn’t. Run the same brain from two different starting numbers and see where each one stops.

Both runs were aiming for the same answer. The brain that started at 20 stopped 34 lower than the brain that started at 90, and both stopped short of 206. Adjusting takes effort, so your brain gives up early. Where you start changes where “far enough” feels. (This is a made-up example to show the habit. Your own results are on the line above.)

Here it is slowly, with a granny. You meet someone’s granny, and somebody whispers “she’s 95, right?” She clearly isn’t 95, so you come down: 85… 80? Yes, 80 feels fair. Now imagine the whisper had been “60?” instead. That’s too low, so you go up: 68… 70. It’s the same granny with the same face, and your two answers are ten years apart. That’s because you were judging the distance from the whisper, and you stopped as soon as it felt like enough.

Explore

Fine, but money is different, right?

You could shrug off the bones, because most people don’t know that number, so maybe the wheel only moved you because you were guessing. Money should be different, because you know what things cost. Here’s a pair of decent wireless headphones with no brand name and no price tag. You’ll turn over two cards, one at a time. Answer honestly and don’t read ahead.

Card one

So what would you pay?

Your offer

€–

Card two

These are the same headphones. What would you pay now?

Your offer

€–

(This line has no true price on it, because there isn’t one.)

Once you can feel it happening…

…you can stop it.

Decide your own number before you hear anyone else’s, and write it down if it matters.

One more thing

This is called anchoring, and psychologists have been measuring it for fifty years. It works on experts too: in one study, experienced judges rolled dice and then handed out longer sentences after high rolls. Think of a “was €80, now €50” price tag, the first offer when you haggle, or the first number anyone says out loud. None of them tells you what something is really worth. They’re anchors, and your mind starts adjusting from them.

Knowing about it doesn’t protect you, because it works even on people who study it for a living. What helps is to decide your own number before you hear theirs, because a number you’ve already decided on is much harder to move.

Now try it on other people. Ask someone, “Do you reckon a giraffe weighs more or less than 2,000 kg? …OK, what’s your guess?” Then ask someone else the same thing, but start from 400 kg. The first person will usually guess much higher than the second, even though it’s the same giraffe. (A big male is about 1,200 kg, if they want to know.) If they say the number made no difference to them, show them your own results from this page.